M2M - The Industry
I know that I have been silent lately on my rants, but don’t think it’s because I’ve “turned over a new leaf" because I am still as angry as ever.
More to the point this industry, our space, is requiring a bigger level of commitment and energy. For many, this means we find ourselves without the luxury of time to write about, and indeed even contemplate, the changes to our marketplace.
I have a lot to rant about, but most of my thoughts at this time of year relate to what is coming down the pipe. Those of you who read my rants know that I do these tongue-in-cheek and 2015 is no exception.
So please take these with a grain of salt and remember they contain a grain of truth...
1) Wearable technology will continue to be the dud that everyone thinks it is. Listen, I am all for baby clothes that monitor your children's vital signs, as long as the sensors don’t burn your baby. I also think talking into a watch is so ridiculous that it ranks right up there with checking your heart rate and steps on an iWatch. Are there a certain number of steps that you want to hit on any given day? Unless you have a heart condition there is no need for you to monitor your heart rate.
2) Cisco will continue to add no value to M2M and IOT. They will however continue to spend gobs of money on advertising to make it appear that they are market movers.
3) Connected toasters, thermostats, alarms, and microwave ovens etc – aka the connected home – will continue to attract a lot of investment and feature incremental growth because hardly anyone wants a machine learning what temperature they want their house, let alone have it burn their toast for them. Seriously read 1984 by Orwell then watch the Gorn episode of Star Trek. People, this is not a time saver. It is Advertising and Marketing 101 for what I am calling Huge Data (that Big Data about stuff we do in our home). It’s the next best thing to having Google set up cameras in your house.
4) The industry will become more and more fragmented as a result of every public company on the NYSE and the NASDAQ having an IOT or M2M play. There will be less than ten companies that actually know what they are talking about which will lead to a bunch of mergers and acquisitions as the companies that said they had a play realize they don’t have any internal knowledge and are therefore forced to buy it.
5) Our industry will be plagued by a shortage of qualified sales and technical people. Please visit www.novotech.com to submit your resume for any future ops. Conversely, there are too many administrative and executive applicants for almost no jobs. This means that consultant company ranks will continue to grow.
6) TV will cease to exist in 2015. I am predicting that at least one of the major networks will go bankrupt, and I am leaning toward CBS because of its shows… particularly the Big Bang Theory. This will impact our industry because the pipes will be clogged at all of the carriers with their branded versions of Netflix. So for 2016 the major trend will be watching old shows, which when I was a kid, were called re-runs.
7) Security will become a huge issue. I predict that North Korea will find that if they can control all of the connected toasters in North America, they can also disrupt the morning routines of millions of Americans providing a slight annoyance to their day. Or they may go after a major movie studio and release tons of gossip and salaries…. On second thought no one would be interested in that so look for the toaster thing.
8) ISIS will come up with a machine to machine strategy, but will abandon it after they realize that you need electricity and infrastructure to make things connected in the real world. Oddly Russia will still try to sell a solution….but there will be a constant fear of being killed which will be a great aid in taking power yet a very poor motivator for society in general once you have it.
9) Anonymous, the hacker group, will start to release details of baby monitor recordings that they claim came from NSA servers. The results will go viral and prove to be very cute audio clips of babies making noises in their rooms, further raising everyone’s fears about how much of our everyday data is out there for anyone to look at.
10) Banks and Credit Card companies will not be subject to any fraud and the whole issue around the protection of personal data will not be discussed as society learns to trust that the big banks have foolproof security and what they are doing when they sell our data.